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Pathways linking uncertainties in model projections of climate and its effects (PLUMES)

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Basic project information

PLUMES_logo_final.pngFacing the mitigation and adaptation challenges of ongoing climate change, PLUMES (Pathways linking uncertainties in model projections of climate and its effects) aims towards a significantly improved treatment of key uncertainties in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) analysis, with a focus on Finland and two sectors, crop production and human health. It proposes to do this by treating aspects of uncertainty within an evolving new framework of global scenarios described by the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). PLUMES will provide:

  1. updated climate scenarios for Finland, put in the context of their predecessors but increased in scope and methods of presentation;
  2. develop narrative descriptions of alternative future socioeconomic and technological developments in Finland that are consistent with global SSP storylines;
  3. identify key sources of uncertainty in the modelling of climate change impacts on crop potential and on temperature-related human mortality;
  4. further develop a mapping tool for depicting elements of the RCP/SSP scenarios for Finland, as well as potential impacts of these on crop production and on the vulnerability of the elderly to future changes in extreme weather; and
  5. provide access and guidance to new methods and tools for evaluating impact uncertainties and to the new scenarios.

Research team and funding

PLUMES is co-ordinated at the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE).

Project team at SYKE: Timothy Carter (consortium leader), Stefan Fronzek (consortium manager), Mikael Hildén, Kirsi Mäkinen and Nina Pirttioja.

Project team at the Natural Resource Institue Finland (Luke): Taru Palosuo (sub-project leader), Jukka Höhn, Reimund Rötter, Tapio Salo and Fulu Tao

Project team at the Finnish Meteorological Insitute (FMI): Kirsti Jylhä (sub-project leader), Juha Aalto, Otto Hyvärinen, Matti Kämäräinen, Mikko Laapas, Hanna Mäkelä, Pentti Pirinen, Kimmo Ruosteenoja and Reija Ruuhela

Funding for PLUMES is from the Academy of Finland: 989707 Euro (decision numbers 277276, 277403, 292836 and 278067).

Project publications

PLUMES publications list (6 October 2017)

Contact information

Professor Timothy Carter, Climate Change Research Programme, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE),

Published 2014-10-29 at 0:00, updated 2017-10-06 at 12:08