Finnish Environment Institute | Suomen ympäristökeskus | Finlands miljöcentral

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Probabilistic Evaluation of Ecological and Economic Objectives of River Basin Management Reveals a Potential Flaw in the Goal Setting of the EU Water Framework Directive

The biological status of European lakes has not improved as expected despite up-to-date legislation and ecological standards. As a result, the realism of objectives and the attainment of related ecological standards are under doubt. This paper presents a probabilistic assessment of the ecological and economic impacts of environmental and societal drivers and planned management measures for a eutrophic Finnish lake. It showed that attainment of good ecological status as qualified in the Water Framework Directive of the European Union is unlikely. Consequently, management objectives and ecological and economic standards have to be reassessed and reset to provide a realistic goal setting for management.


Water framework directive, Bayes network, Modelling, Uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation


Turo Hjerppe, Antti Taskinen, Niina Kotamäki, Olli Malve and Juhani Kettunen

Published 2017-05-08 at 10:20, updated 2017-07-31 at 11:59

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