Finnish Scenarios for Climate Change Research Addressing Policies, Regions and Integrated Systems (FINSCAPES)

The FINSCAPES project aims to develop new integrated scenarios of socioeconomic and climate change during the 21st century for use in climate change research and policy making in Finland. In close collaboration with stakeholders of key societally relevant systems, it co-produces national and regional socioeconomic narratives as extensions of global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Using recent global climate model simulation results, a set of national and regional future climate projections will be prepared, with new analysis on extreme weather and compound events and preparation of climate and impact storylines. Narratives and climate projections are combined into integrated, system-wide SSP-based scenarios for Finnish sub-regions and nationally. Design, development and application of the scenarios are demonstrated in case studies of relevance for research and policy. Emphasis is placed on effective dissemination of project outcomes at regional, national and international level.

News

• 2021-02-17: How may global changes affect the future of Finland's agricultural and food economy?
• 2020-11-26: Scientists assess framework for depicting different futures under changing climate

Publications

FINSCAPES infosheets

• FINSCAPES Info 1/2021 FINSCAPES: Finnish scenarios for climate change research. Addressing policies, regions and integrated systems (pdf) – Finnish version
• FINSCAPES Info 2/2022 FINSCAPES project begins to construct scenarios for climate analysis (pdf) – Swedish version – Finnish ersion
• FINSCAPES info 3/2024 FINSCAPES project finalises a new set of integrated regional scenarios for climate change analysis (pdf) – Swedish version – Finnish version

Overview/Methods

• Green, C., S. Fagerström, D. Ke, P. Metzinger, M. Myllynen, X. Xing, T.R. Carter, K. Ebi, M. Garschagen, K. Kok, A. Lipsanen, K.Takahashi, B. J. van Ruijven. 2022. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Literature Database, Version 2, 2020-2021 (Preliminary Release). Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). https://doi.org/10.7927/vtsk-hf73. Accessed 12 December 2023.
• Ruuhela, R., Carter, T.R., Rantanen, M., Polade, S., Lipsanen, A., Jylhä, K., Laurila, T.K., Luomaranta, A., Fagerström, S., Luhtala, S., and Gregow, H. 2023. Ilmasto- ja sosioekonomiset skenaariot ilmastonmuutokseen sopeutumisen suunnittelussa (Climate and socioeconomic scenarios for climate change adaptation planning), Publications of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 2023:4, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 43 pp. (in Finnish with English summary). https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/handle/10024/164670

Regional climate: observations and projections

• Ruosteenoja, K. and K. Jylhä, 2021. Projected climate change in Finland during the 21st century calculated from CMIP6 model simulations. Geophysica, 56, 39–69. (PDF)
• Ruosteenoja, K. and K. Jylhä, 2021. Online supplement for: Projected climate change in Finland during the 21st century calculated from CMIP6 model simulations. Geophysica, 56. 14 p. (PDF)
• Ruosteenoja K, 2021: Applicability of CMIP6 models for building climate projections for northern Europe. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Reports 2021:7., http://hdl.handle.net/10138/334477
• Toivonen E, Partanen A-I, Jylhä K, 2021: Ilmastonmuutos vaikuttaa hulevesien mitoitukseen Suomessa ja muissa Pohjoismaissa. Vesitalous 2/2021, p. 14–18. (PDF)
• Médus, E., 2022: Regional climate over Northern Europe: from observations to high-resolution modeling. Finnish Meteorological Institute Contributions 182. https://doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361591
• Médus, E., Thomassen, E. D., Belušić, D., Lind, P., Berg, P., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., Kjellström, E., Olsson, J., and Yang, W., 2022. Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022
• Ruosteenoja, K., Jylhä, K. Average and extreme heatwaves in Europe at 0.5–2.0 °C global warming levels in CMIP6 model simulations. Clim Dyn 61, 4259–4281 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06798-4
• Ruosteenoja, K. and Jylhä, K., 2023. Heatwave projections for Finland at different levels of global warming derived from CMIP6 simulations. Geophysica, 58 (PDF)