CAScading Climate risks: towards ADaptive and resilient European Societies (CASCADES)

 

Climate change amplifies existing risks and vulnerabilities in a globalised world. New risks are also emerging from complex cross-sectoral and multi-dimensional interactions that aggregate gradually, and sometimes emerge abruptly. Recent examples of links between crop damage in Russia, international food prices and political instability in North Africa, as well as impact chains from drought, migration, civil unrest and war in the Middle East, demonstrate how climate-induced risks outside Europe can cascade and threaten Europe. CASCADES strives to understand the conditions under which climate risks propagate beyond their geographical and temporal location in ways that may affect European stability and cohesion. It does so via a broad 360° risk assessment and deeper thematic analyses of trade, value chain, financial and political connections between Europe and the rest of the world. CASCADES’ ambition is to identify the policy leverage points that can help the EU to adapt and respond to such cascading climate risks. CASCADES integrates a wide range of established and innovative methodologies – many of which have not been seriously applied to adaptation questions before – ranging from biophysical climate impact modelling, economic modelling of trade and financial networks, and data integration methods, to qualitative approaches including hotspot case study analysis original social science research and serious games. CASCADES combines leading expertise in climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, international trade and commodity flows, foreign policy and security, and finance and business, with deep knowledge and proven experience of co-creating with – and influencing – stakeholders from private sectors, public policy and civil society. CASCADES will provide knowledge and tools to support policy and decision-making processes, thus helping Europe to strategically navigate a sustainable and resilient path through a rapidly changing, interconnected world.

Project webpage: https://www.cascades.eu

Publications from the CASCADES team at SYKE

Published articles in peer-reviewed journals:

• Carter, T.R, M. Benzie, E. Campiglio, H. Carlsen, S. Fronzek, M. Hildén, C.P.O. Reyer and C. West (2021). A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change. Global Environmental Change 69, 102307, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102307
• Kivimaa, P., 2023. Climate Security Connects Fragile and Strong States via Cascading Effects: A Review Article. Political Science Quarterly 138(4):575–582, doi:10.1093/psquar/qqad035
• Meinander, O., M. Hildén, H.K. Lappalainen, C. Mosoni, R. Ruuhela, E. Kuntsi-Reunanen, T.R. Carter, S. Fronzek, N. Pirttioja, A. Nadir Arslan, K. Kupiainen, K. Isaksen, H. Lihavainen and J. Aalto (2022). Permafrost thaw and adapting to its multiple effects in the Arctic. In: Heininen, L. H. Esner-Pirot and J. Barnes (eds.) Arctic Yearbook 2022, p. 215-231, ISSN 2298-2418, https://arcticyearbook.com/arctic-yearbook/2022
• O’Neill, B.C., T.R. Carter, K. Ebi, P.A. Harrison, E. Kemp-Benedict, K. Kok, E. Kriegler, B.L. Preston, K. Riahi, J. Sillmann, B.J. van Ruijven, D. van Vuuren, D. Carlisle, C. Conde, J. Fuglestvedt, C. Green, T. Hasegawa, J. Leininger, S. Monteith, R. Pichs-Madruga (2020) Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nature Climate Change 10:1074–1084, doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0
• Ringsmuth, A.K., I.M. Otto, B. van den Hurk, G. Lahn, C.P.O. Reyer, T.R. Carter, P. Magnuszewski, I. Monasterolo, J.C.J.H. Aerts, M. Benzie, E. Campiglio, S. Fronzek, F. Gaupp, L. Jarzabek, R.J.T. Klein, H. Knaepen, R. Mechler, J. Mysiak, J. Sillmann, D. Stuparu and C. West (2022). Lessons from COVID-19 for managing transboundary climate risks and building resilience. Climate Risk Management 35, 100395, doi:10.1016/j.crm.2022.100395

Policy briefs and reports:

• Carter, T.R. (2023) Adaptation for resilience and security under a changing climate. Maanpuolustuskurssiyhdistyksen julkaisu (National Defence Course Association Magazine) 146, 42-47. https://www.maanpuolustus-lehti.fi/adaptation-for-resilience
• Hildén, M., G. Lahn, T.R. Carter, R.J. T. Klein, I.M. Otto, B. Pohl, C.P.O. Reyer, F. Tondel (2020) Cascading climate impacts: a new factor in European policy-making. Policy Brief, Potsdam: CASCADES Consortium, 4 p.
• Reyer, C. P. O., H. Saes, A. Bruhn, D. Stuparu, B. van den Hurk, K. de Bruin, C. West, R. Ebrey, C. Mauricio-Planas, C. Thévignot, S. Dessai, M. Pacchetti Baldissera, S. Fronzek, T. Carter, H. Knaepen, F. Tondel, T. Shepherd, C. Aylett, O. Grafham, P. Magnuszewki, K. Harris, S. Hochrainer-Stigler, I.M. Otto, F. Bosello, J. Sillmann, J. Mysiak, E. Ercin & I. Monasterolo (2023) Cross-border climate change impacts and systemic risks in Europe and beyond: Book of abstracts, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 93 p., doi:10.48485/pik.2023.025
• van den Hurk, B., I.M. Otto, C.P. Reyer, J. Aerts, M. Benzie, E. Campiglio, T.R. Carter, S. Fronzek, F. Gaupp, L. Jarzabek and R.J. Klein (2020). What can COVID-19 teach us about preparing for climate risks in Europe? Policy Brief, Potsdam: CASCADES Consortium, 16 p.

SYKE news related to CASCADES

• 21 June 2023: SYKE blog by Marja Helena Sivonen and Emma Hakala "At the speed of trust: New ways of action are needed for Arctic cooperation"
• 21 June 2023: CASCADES blog by Katarzyna Szewczyk and Piotr Magnuszewski "The Future of Arctic Security – policy simulation workshop"
• 30 May 2023: Seminar and policy simulation "Policy implications of Arctic cross-border climate change impacts"
• 24 June 2021: SYKE news "New framework provides insights into cross-border climate change impacts"
• 24 September 2020: SYKE blog by Tatu Sailaranta "The EU’s policy of adapting to climate change should be better aligned with its trade policy"
• 10 June 2019: SYKE blog by Joan Gouverne and Mikael Hildén "Cascading impacts: Mitigation and adaptation need to go hand in hand"