Press release 2011-12-01 at 10:50
Over the last three years, nearly one hundred researchers from the Finnish Environment Institute, the Finnish Meteorological Institute, and the Universities of Helsinki, Jyväskylä and Oulu have been investigating the way in which climate change affects nature and the livelihoods dependent on it, such as agriculture and forestry, fishing and tourism.
It is hoped that the results of the extensive, EU LIFE+ funded "Vulnerability Assessment of Ecosystem Services for Climate Change impacts and Adaptation" or VACCIA project, will be of benefit to citizens, decision makers and entrepreneurs, and help determine how Finland can adapt to a changing climate.
In Finland, the climate is expected to warm more during winter than during summer. In summertime, hot days will become more common and hot periods will lengthen. Thermal winter i.e. the winter period as determined on the basis of temperature, will shorten. The project investigated the effects of climate change and the possibilities for adaptation in as many environments as possible. These ranged from large cities (Helsinki, Lahti) and tourist centres (Kuusamo, Sotkamo), to different types of forest, agricultural and water areas, from north to south, and from inland to coastal areas.
Tourism must adapt to lack of snow and ice
"Changing rainfall, shorter and warmer winters, as well as a considerable decrease in snow cover could considerably change the preconditions for nature-based tourism in Northern Finland. Tourism centres in the north, such as Vuokatti in Sotkamo, are already giving thought to whether uncertainties surrounding the winter weather could be reduced by expanding various covered solutions, such as ski tunnels or ice stadiums," explains the head of the project’s tourism section, Professor Hannu I. Heikkinen of the University of Oulu.
"There are plans to produce the energy needed for an artificial winter locally, using ground source heat and bio energy. Another obvious adaptation would be to develop year-round tourism and programme options. This would also improve the tourism sector’s efficiency while evening out stress on the environment and society."
Agriculture vulnerable to changing weather conditions
As the climate warms, in Finland it will become possible to grow higher-yielding species and varieties that require a longer growing period. Through local examples, the project aims to investigate the effects of climate change on commercial crop selection, on the strengthening of certain production sectors, on the use of fertilisers and pesticides, on the leaching of nutrients, and on erosion or biodiversity.
As a result of climate change, alternatives for field use will become more versatile. However, the markets and agricultural policy will ultimately determine what is grown there.
Researchers recommend cultivating species suitable for long days and that can benefit from a longer growing period. Such crops’ efficient use of water and nutrients, resistance and overwintering ability should also be improved through cultivation.
”Changing weather conditions increase the vulnerability of agriculture. Farms have always had to adapt to changing weather conditions but, among farmers, an increase in the variability of growing periods and in the frequency of extreme weather events require increasing financial adaptability to large variations in crops and crop quality,” says the head of the project’s agricultural section, Professor Juha Helenius from the agronomy department of the University of Helsinki.
Climate change poses new challenges to water pollution control in agriculture. Even in the current climate conditions, the goals set for reducing the nutrient loads caused by agriculture have not been met. Modelling shows that climate change will increase solid loads in erosion sensitive areas by approximately 15 per cent and inorganic nitrogen loads by around 5 per cent. Researchers recommend leaving plant coverage on fields in winter, in order to reduce leaching of nutrients.
The success of humans and livelihoods depend on functioning ecosystem services
The keynote speaker of the project’s closing seminar, Professor Rik Leemans from Holland, who also headed the UN’s Millennium Ecosystem Assessment work group, emphasised that understanding the benefits of ecosystem services, and proper analysis and assessment of them, are preconditions for the success of people and livelihoods that are dependent on nature.
”Because ecosystem services produced by nature, such as clean water and pollination, are common and free, they are seldom accorded a high enough value. However, they are crucial to the wellbeing of nature and humans and to many local livelihoods,” Rik Leemans stated.
Fewer pollutants from Kola in Finland
According to the research of a workgroup that studied air quality, prevailing north-westerly airstreams will grow even more common, while westerly and southerly airstreams will become more common than easterly airstreams. This development will further reduce the transportation of pollutants from the Kola Peninsula to Finland.
Other important results from the various areas of this extensive project include, for instance, the continuing increase in water turbidity in the western Gulf of Finland, while the spring migration of waterfowl will take place earlier and their autumn migration later. In cities, the amount of storm water will increase and its quality will weaken, in particular in areas where the ground is asphalted. As rainfall increases and constructed areas, through which water cannot penetrate, grow the risk of floods in urban areas will increase.
Modelling suggests that, in forests, the growth of pines is accelerating by at least 16% in Southern Finland and 31% in Lapland, but the increasing frequency of extreme weather events is restricting the development of forest resources. Changing conditions will lead to major changes in forestry.
Fishermen will have to adjust to changes in the catch. In the future, trout may suffer from the high summer temperatures. Pikeperch and perch are warm water species and will benefit from higher temperatures. As waters grow warmer, vendace and whitefish may move into deeper waters, making it harder to trawl for them.
More information
Project Director, Professor Martin Forsius, Finnish Environment Institute
+358 40 740 2364, firstname.lastname@ymparisto.fi
Chief Information Officer Sirpa Pellinen, Finnish Environment Institute,
+358 40 740 2754, firstname.lastname@ymparisto.fi
Press conference material
Martin Forsius, SYKE: VACCIA-project: aims and key results.pdf (1824 kt)
Rik Leemans, University of Wageningen: Mitä luonnon tarjoamat palvelut merkitsevät ihmisen hyvinvoinnille?.pdf (95 kt)
Hannu I. Heikkinen, University of Oulu: Hiihtäjät hiihtoputkeen? Matkailun sopeutuminen lumen ja jään puutteeseen.pdf (3151 kt)
Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio, MTT: Maatalouden sopeutumiskeinot ilmaston muuttuessa.pdf (3254 kt)
Contact information for the leaders of the work groups
1. Climate Scenarios
Research Specialist Kirsti Jylhä, Finnish Meteorological Institute
+358 9 1929 4125, firstname.lastname@fmi.fi
2. Coastal Ecosystems – Western Gulf of Finland
Director Marko Reinikainen, University of Helsinki
+358 400 490 674, firstname.j.lastname@helsinki.fi
3. Urban Environments – Helsinki Metropolitan Area
Coordinator Jussi Kulonpalo, University of Helsinki
+358 50 441 7337, firstname.lastname@helsinki.fi
4. Agricultural Production - Lepsämäjoki
Professor Juha Helenius, University of Helsinki
+358 40 849 3025, firstname.lastname@helsinki.fi
5. Catchments and Lakes – Lammi
Professor Lauri Arvola, University of Helsinki
+358 50 357 3079, firstname.lastname@helsinki.fi
6. Forest Production – Northern Häme and Northern Finland
Professor Eero Nikinmaa, University of Helsinki
+358 9 191 58111, firstname.lastname@helsinki.fi
7. Fisheries Production – Päijänne
Professor, Vice Dean Juha Karjalainen, University of Jyväskylä
+358 40 513 4865, firstname.lastname@jyu.fi
8. Biodiversity of Coastal Regions– Bothnian Bay
Director Marko Hyvärinen, University of Helsinki
+358 9 191 24440, firstname.lastname@helsinki.fi
9. Tourism – Northern Finland
Professor Hannu Heikkinen, University of Oulu
+358 40 184 2176, firstname.i.lastname@oulu.fi
10. Pollution Transport – Pallas-Sodankylä
Group Director, Research Professor Hannele Hakola, Finnish Meteorological Institute
+358 50 441 2102, firstname.lastname@fmi.fi
11. Remote Sensing
Researcher Saku Anttila, Finnish Environment Institute
+358 400 148 732, firstname.lastname@ymparisto.fi
12. General Project Management
Senior Researcher Jussi Vuorenmaa, Finnish Environment Institute
+358 400 148 765, firstname.lastname@ymparisto.fi
13. Synthesis and Dissemination
Senior Researcher Irina Bergström, Finnish Environment Institute
+358 400 148 763, firstname.lastname@ymparisto.fi