Integrating biogeochemical analysis, spatial modelling and Bayesian networks to assess dredging impacts on marine carbon sinks
The SOFTDRINK project will leverage a unique combination of expertise to deliver new knowledge on the impact of dredging on seafloor carbon stocks and dynamics in Finnish sea areas. The project applies a three-tier structure, in which the base level constitutes the creation of the first-ever spatial predictive map of carbon stocks in sediments of Finnish sea areas; the middle level provides an equivalent spatial representation of current human impacts on carbon stocks due to dredging activities; and the upper level delivers a set of projections for future impacts under defined sea-use and climate change scenarios.
The project utilizes advanced biogeochemical analytical approaches to determine the composition and reactivity of sediment organic material to estimate net carbon loss as a consequence of dredging. This information is used to parameterize spatial state-change models in which the impacts of over 36,000 known dredging locations are simulated throughout Finnish sea areas. Bayesian networks are then applied to estimate the risk and uncertainty of impacts on carbon stocks due to dredging under newly created sea-use scenarios coupled to climate projections.
Throughout, the project maintains close collaboration with key stakeholders including the Finnish Marine Spatial Planning coordination group, as well as diverse (inter)national partners.
Photo: Jamina Vasama / Metsähallitus.