Modelling of air pollution emissions
Unified assessment models support the evaluation of air pollution emissions and enable the development of diverse emission reduction strategies and help improve the climate, human health, and the state of the environment.
FRES model enables analyzing the future development of emissions and potential for emission mitigation
The most important tool at the Finnish level is the Finnish Regional Emission Scenario Model (FRES), developed at Syke. The model’s results are used both in scientific assessments and to support decision-making. The model can be used, for example, to evaluate the future development of emissions, the various options for emission reductions, and their costs across different regional scales. Long-term cooperation with national and international research groups has enabled the creation of a comprehensive assessment framework and the achievement of scientifically high-quality results. The FRES model is also used as a national reference model for IIASA’s GAINS model as part of the work of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe’s (UNECE) Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling (TFIAM).
At the finest, the emissions can be described with a spatial resolution of 250 m x 250 m and a time resolution of 1 hour. These data can also be used in various atmospheric dispersion and chemical transport models. To study the health impacts of air pollution, the FRES model includes also a dispersion model for primary PM2.5 particles, developed in collaboration with the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL).
- A detailed description of the FRES model (Karvosenoja 2008) (Helda)
- An example of FRES model health assessment (Savolahti 2019)
In addition, computational models are used to study emissions of black carbon and other compounds affecting the climate from various sectors in Finland. The aim of these studies is to evaluate the future development of emissions and their climate impacts, as well as the possibilities to reduce emissions and their environmental effects. Additionally, the research team provides expert support for the Ministry of the Environment and in several international working groups related to black carbon and other short-lived climate-forcers (SLCFs).
International working groups
Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC)
The Climate and Clean Air Coalition is a voluntary partnership consisting of countries, international organizations, companies, and other institutions that are committed to improving air quality and mitigating climate change by reducing short-lived climate pollutants (SLCP).
Arctic Council Expert Group on Black Carbon and Methane (EGBCM)
The purpose of this expert group is to regularly assess the development of black carbon and methane emissions in member and observer states of the Arctic Council, and to provide policymakers with up-to-date information on effective emission reduction measures.
AMAP SLCP Expert Group
A science-based expert group operating under the Arctic Council’s AMAP program. The group produces assessment reports related to Arctic climate change.
Air Pollution Damage Cost Model Supports Strategic Decision-Making
The Air Pollution Damage Cost Model (IHKU) enables the evaluation of the health impacts that can be achieved by limiting fine particle concentrations and quantifies these impacts in monetary terms. The IHKU model can be utilized through national-level IHKU and municipal-level IHKU damage cost calculators. IHKU model was utilized in the KILTOVA-2 project during the development of the Municipal Climate Action Impact Assessment Tool (KILTOVA), which can assess the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from municipal measures as well as the associated economic and health impacts.
Publications
Scientific articles
- Paunu, V. V. 2025. Put emissions on the map-geospatial approach to air pollution emission analysis. School of Engineering | Doctoral thesis (article-based). Department of Built Environment.
- Paunu, V.-V., Karvosenoja, N., Segersson, D., López-Aparicio, S., Nielsen, O.-K., Schmidt Plejdrup, M., Thorsteinsson, T., Vo, D.T., Kuenen, J., Denier van der Gon, H., Jalkanen, J.-P., Brandt, J., Geels, C., 2024. Air pollution emission inventory using national high-resolution spatial parameters for the Nordic countries and analysis of PM 2.5 spatial distribution for road transport and machinery and off-road sectors. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 16, 1453–1474.
- Paunu, V.-V., Karvosenoja, N., Segersson, D., López-Aparicio, S., Nielsen, O.-K., Plejdrup, M.S., Thorsteinsson, T., Niemi, J.V., Vo, D.T., Denier van der Gon, H.A.C., Brandt, J., Geels, C., 2021. Spatial distribution of residential wood combustion emissions in the Nordic countries: How well national inventories represent local emissions? Atmospheric Environment 264, 118712.
- McCarty, J.L., Aalto, J., Paunu, V.-V., Arnold, S.R., Eckhardt, S., Klimont, Z., Fain, J.J., Evangeliou, N., Venäläinen, A., Tchebakova, N.M., Parfenova, E.I., Kupiainen, K., Soja, A.J., Huang, L., Wilson, S., 2021. Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century. Biogeosciences 18, 5053–5083.
- Böttcher, K., Paunu, V.-V., Kupiainen, K., Zhizhin, M., Matveev, A., Savolahti, M., Klimont, Z., Väätäinen, S., Lamberg, H., Karvosenoja, N., 2021. Black carbon emissions from flaring in Russia in the period 2012-2017. Atmospheric Environment 118390.
- Kühn, T., Kupiainen, K., Miinalainen, T., Kokkola, H., Paunu, V.-V., Laakso, A., Tonttila, J., Dingenen, R.V., Kulovesi, K., Karvosenoja, N., 2020. Effects of black carbon mitigation on Arctic climate. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, 5527–5546.
- Kupiainen, K., Stojiljkovic, A., Paunu, V.-V., Karvosenoja, N., Karppinen, A., Kukkonen, J., Kangas, L., Kauhaniemi, M., Denby, B. & Hänninen O. 2020. Characteristics and mitigation of vehicular non-exhaust particle emissions in Nordic conditions. In: Mensink, C., Gong, W., Hakami, A. (eds.). Air pollution modelling and its application XXVI, Springer Proceedings in Complexity, Springer Nature, Switzerland. Pp. 211-216. ISBN 978-3-030-22054-9. ITM 2018 Proceedings. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_33
- Savolahti, M. 2020. Climate and health impacts of residential wood combustion in Finland. Aalto University publication series Doctoral dissertations, 1799-4942 ; 32. Aalto yliopisto. Department of Mechanical Engineering, 2020. Espoo. ISBN:978-952-60-8966-9. https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/43035
- Karvosenoja, N., Paunu, V.-V., Savolahti, M., Kupiainen, K., Kukkonen, J., & Hänninen, O. 2020. A high-resolution national emission inventory and dispersion modelling - Is population density a sufficient proxy variable? In: Mensink, C., Gong, W., Hakami, A. (eds.). Air pollution modelling and its application XXVI, Springer Proceedings in Complexity, Springer Nature, Switzerland. ITM 2018 Proceedings. 2020 Pp. 199-204. ISBN 978-3-030-22054-9. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6
- Kukkonen, J., Savolahti, M., Palamarchuk, Y., Lanki, T., Nurmi, V., Paunu, V.-V., Kangas, L., Sofiev, M., Karppinen, A., Maragkidou, A., Tiittanen, P. & Karvosenoja, N. 2020. Modelling of the public health costs of fine particulate matter and results for Finland in 2015. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics; 20 (15): 9371-939 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/9371/2020/
- Savolahti, M. 2020. Puun pienpolton ilmasto- ja terveysvaikutukset Suomessa. Aalto yliopisto, konetekniikan laitos. Aalto University publication series Doctoral Dissertations 32/2020, 44s. 63 liitesivua.
- Savolahti, M., Karvosenoja, N., Soimakallio, S., Kupiainen K., Tissari J., Paunu V.-V. 2019. Near-term climate impacts of Finnish residential wood combustion. Energy Policy 133:110837.
- Savolahti, M., Lehtomäki, H., Karvosenoja, N., Paunu, V.-V., Korhonen, A., Kukkonen, J., Kupiainen, K., Kangas, L., Karppinen, A., Hänninen O. 2019. Residential wood combustion in Finland : PM2.5 emissions and health impacts with and without abatement measures. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health; 16 (16): 2920.
- Kupiainen, K. J., Aamaas, B., Savolahti, M., Karvosenoja, N., Paunu, V.-V. 2019. Climate impact of Finnish air pollutants and greenhouse gases using multiple emission metrics. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19 (11): 7743–7757.
Reports (in Finnish)
Savolahti, M. 2019. Uusimmat arviot puulämmityksen päästöjen terveys- ja ilmastovaikutuksista. Ympäristö ja Terveys; 50 (6): 12-20.
Vihanninjoki, V. 2015. Hajautettu energiantuotanto Suomessa - Nykytila ja tulevaisuus sekä vaikutukset ilmanlaatuun. Suomen ympäristökeskus Syke. 61 s. (pdf, 1.93 MB) Savolahti, M., Karvosenoja, N., Kupiainen, K., Paunu, V-V. 2015. Pienpolton päästövähennyskeinojen kustannustehokkuus ja vaikutukset väestöaltistukseen. Suomen ympäristökeskus Syke. 2.2.2015. 17 s. (pdf, 401.32 KB)
Media and presentations
- Poster: An integrated tool to assess the climate and health benefits of urban strategies and measures. 2022. (pdf, 3.84 MB)
- Podcast: Environmental and health impacts of residential wood combustion. (Researchpod)
- IBFRA 2023 Poster, Future pathways for Arctic forest fires, Ville-Veikko Paunu. (pdf, 323.09 KB)
- The Arctic on Fire. ABC-iCAP COP27 side event streamed presentation (16 November 2022), (Youtube). Jessica McCarty and Ville-Veikko Paunu.
Projects
Ongoing projects
Completed projects
- Black Carbon Footprint (BC Footprint)
- KILTOVA-2 (finnish only)
- Arctic Black Carbon Impacting Climate and Air Pollution (ABC-iCAP)
- Understanding the link between Air pollution and Distribution of related Health Impacts and Welfare in the Nordic countries (NordicWelfAir)
- Novel Assessment of Black Carbon in the Eurasian Arctic: From Historical Concentrations and Sources to Future Climate Impacts (NABCEA)
- Air Pollution Damage Cost Model for Finland (IHKU)
- Black carbon in the Arctic and significance compared to dust sources (IBA-FIN-BCDUST)
Contact information
• Niko Karvosenoja, group manager, coordination of air pollution emissions and modelling, research strategic planning
• Ville-Veikko Paunu, research engineer, air pollution emission scenarios, FRES-model technical implementation, Arctic wildfires
• Mikko Savolahti, senior researcher, scenario modelling, impact assessment and damage cost estimations of air pollution emissions. Promoting actions that enhance biodiversity.
• Ismo Entsalo, researcher, air pollution emission scenarios
