Adapt-FIRST: Adapting to climate change risks in Finland: an Impact Response surface STudy

The Adapt-FIRST project seeks to develop a new risk framework for climate change adaptation at regional level in Finland. In close collaboration with expert and stakeholder partners, it advances methods of climate change impact and adaptation assessment by applying impact models across sectors within a standard analytical framework for representing three aspects of potential relevance for policy: (i) sensitivity: examining the sensitivity of the sectors to changing climate for readily observable indicators; (ii) urgency: estimating risks of approaching or exceeding key thresholds of impact under alternative scenarios as a basis for determining urgency of response; and (iii) response: determining the effectiveness of potential adaptation and mitigation responses. By working with observable indicators, the approach is also amenable to long-term monitoring as well as evaluation of the success of adaptation, where this too can be simulated.

News

• 2023-01-18: New approach for climate risk assessment supports decision-making under uncertainty
• 2021-02-17: How may global changes affect the future of Finland's agricultural and food economy?
• 2020-11-26: Scientists assess framework for depicting different futures under changing climate

Project publications

• Bracho-Mujica, G., R.P. Rötter, M. Haakana, T. Palosuo, S. Fronzek, S. Asseng, C. Yi, F. Ewert, T. Gaiser, B. Kassie, K. Paff, E. Rezaei, A. Rodríguez, M. Ruiz-Ramos, A.K. Srivastava, P. Stratonovitch, F. Tao and M.A. Semenov (2024) Effects of changes in climatic means and variability on future wheat and maize yields and the role of adaptive agro-technologies in reducing negative impacts. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 346, 109887, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109887
• Nendel, C., M. Reckling, P. Debaeke, S. Schulz, M. Berg-Mohnicke, J. Constantin, S. Fronzek, M. Hoffmann, S. Jakšić, K.C. Kersebaum, A. Klimek-Kopyra, H. Raynal, C. Schoving, T. Stella and R. Battisti (2023) Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe. Global Change Biology 29, 1340-1358, doi:10.1111/gcb.16562
• Carter T.R. and S. Fronzek (2022) A model-based response surface approach for evaluating climate change risks and adaptation urgency. In: Kondrup C. et al. (eds) Climate Adaptation Modelling, Springer Climate. Springer, Cham., p. 67-75, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4_9
• Fronzek, S., Y. Honda, A. Ito, J.P. Nunes, N. Pirttioja, J. Räisänen, K. Takahashi, E. Terämä, M. Yoshikawa and T.R. Carter (2022) Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces. Climate Risk Management 38, 100466, doi:10.1016/j.crm.2022.100466
• Lehtonen, H.S., J. Aakkula, S. Fronzek, J. Helin, M. Hildén, S.M. Huttunen, M. Kaljonen, J. Niemi, T. Palosuo, N. Pirttioja, P. Rikkonen, V. Varho and T.R. Carter (2021) Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture. Regional Environmental Change 21, 7, doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01734-2
• O'Neill, B.C., Carter, T.R., Ebi, K. et al. (2020) Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 1074-1084 , doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0
• Greschkowiak, A. (2020) Prospects for oat production under a changing climate in Finland. Master's thesis, University of Augsburg, Geography, pp. 101, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.26542.64322